The result shows that the model based on probability statistics could reflect the delay reason distribution,the difference of turn around time distribution and delay propagation in different periods of sequential flights clearly.

To solve the problem that there is no early-warning technique for conflict management of irregular flight services,the matter element analysis in extension theory was used to build an early-warning model with 5 indices(anticipated delay time,margin of resources,affected passenger number,service ability and event status),each of which has 5 grades(normal,attensional,precautious,danger and crisis).

When flight conditions become abnormal or airplane flights are late, few Airline and Airport Department can offer passengers good help because of picking up no information from Air Traffic Control Department.