Children hang paper angels on Tuesday during the Angels of Memory annual action in Lviv, western Ukraine. Ukrinform via Newscom
Editor's note: On Feb 24, 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, triggering an international crisis with lasting effects. Two years later, a 1,000-kilometer front line separates two irreconcilable camps. China Daily looks at Western allies' waning support for Kyiv and the possibility for peace.
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its third year on Saturday, the European Union is struggling to sustain its support for Kyiv amid gloomy news from the battleground, public fatigue, the Republican Congress' blocking of US aid, and the possible win of Donald Trump in the November presidential election.
Just as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was about to speak at the Munich Security Conference, or MSC, on Feb 17, Kyiv ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the eastern town of Avdiivka, a move that Zelensky blamed on faltering Western arms supply.
In Washington, while the Senate passed a foreign aid package which includes $61 billion for Ukraine, House Speaker Mike Johnson said his chamber will not be "rushed" to pass the measure.
Asked about Ukraine aid at the MSC, Republican Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts said the United States' southern border is now the top concern for people in the US.
At a campaign rally in South Carolina on Feb 10, Trump said he would encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to any NATO member that does not meet the spending criteria on defense. This again refreshed the memory of Europeans on the tense trans-Atlantic relationship when Trump was in office.
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Swedish prime minister, expressed that everyone in Europe is deeply worried about Trump.
"If he is elected, who knows what might happen," he said on CNN program Fareed Zakaria GPS.
There has been much talk now about how the European Union should beef up its own defense capability to increase its geopolitical clout, especially in an era of Trump.
Polish farmers drive their tractors in protest in Poznan on Feb 9. They were angry at EU agrarian policy and cheap Ukraine produce imports which, they say, are undercutting
their livelihoods. Czarek Sokolowski / AP
"Europe has to step up its industrial base," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the MSC on Feb 17.
She said the commission will present a defense industrial strategy proposal in three weeks and will also open a defense innovation office in Ukraine.
Von der Leyen said the proposal is to increase defense spending and "spend better" with joint procurement and agreements to provide predictability to industry and better interoperability among armed forces in the 27 member states.
She also vowed to create a European Commissioner for Defense position if she wins a second term at the commission. She added that Ukraine must be integrated into Europe's defense programs.
National security
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated at the MSC that Berlin will invest 2 percent of its GDP in defense now into the 2030s and beyond.
He said regardless of how the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, and regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, one thing is crystal clear. "We Europeans must do much more for our own security — now and in the future," he said.
"Our readiness to do so is considerable."
But German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, who is also minister of economic affairs, said the EU has 27 defense industries, not one defense industry.
He cited national pride as one obstacle for the integration of the industries.
"Some countries are very proud of their defense industry and they don't want Europe to have a say in it," he said.
Locals wait for humanitarian aid distribution in a village of Avdiivka near Donbas on Monday. Narciso Contreras / Getty Image
He added there is also the concern that jobs are going abroad, which might hurt their national economy, adding that some have questioned the need for a big defense industry if the conflict is going to be over sooner or later, such as in two or three years.
While most Western leaders have vowed, at least rhetorically, to continue to support Ukraine in the fight against Russia, some have also implied the need for a negotiated settlement, a taboo in the EU for the last two years.
Acting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is a favorite candidate to become the next NATO secretary-general, said at the MSC that only Kyiv can trigger peace negotiations with Moscow.
"But when that happens, we will also have to sit down with the US, within NATO, collectively with the Russians to talk about future security arrangements between us and the Russians," he said.
Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, said in his podcast that the Russia-Ukraine conflict "is not going very well, certainly not from the perspective of those attending the security conference", referring to Western leaders at the MSC.
"Ukraine is nowhere close to the level of prioritization these days," he said of the public fatigue regarding Ukraine.
European media, which have been pro-Ukraine, has also started to cover the other side of the story, such as a mission impossible for Ukraine to defeat a nuclear Russia and the fatigue in both Ukraine and Europe about the prolonged conflict.
Top concern
The MSC Index released this year shows that Russia was perceived as the No 7 threat in Germany this year, compared to No 1 last year. Even in all G7 countries, the threat posed by Russia as the top concern as indicated in 2022 and 2023 has slipped to fourth place this year.
Yan Shaohua, an associate professor in the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, questioned how the EU's new 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package agreed in February is going to change the situation for Ukraine. This is on top of the 88 billion euros already spent since the conflict broke out in February 2022.
He added that the rise of right-wing populism in Europe will pose further challenges to future support for Ukraine.
Yan noted that with another conflict going on at its door, Ukraine is no longer the only item on top of the EU's foreign policy agenda.
"The prospect of a Trump comeback in the US election casts another shadow over trans-Atlantic unity and the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," he said.
"To prepare for such a scenario, there is an increasing sense of urgency in Europe to step up efforts in developing its defense capabilities, but if the US decides to cut its aid or even leave NATO under Trump, it is doubtful whether Europe could fill the gap left."
