Economists deemed that in 2024, China's economic work will give priority to scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and preventing and defusing risks, based on the latest Central Economic Work Conference, Securities Daily reported on Tuesday.

Sci-tech innovation

Dong Zhongyun, chief economist at AVIC Securities, said: "Among the nine key tasks proposed by the meeting for next year, leading the development of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation ranks first, further highlighting the important role of scientific and technological innovation in stabilizing China's economic growth, structural adjustment and transformation." He said that the meeting has clearly put forward to nurturing the development of the digital economy, artificial intelligence, biological manufacturing, commercial space industry, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, life science and other new industries, new track. The corresponding capital market investment opportunities deserve attention.

Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the perspective of the meeting on disruptive technologies, cutting-edge technologies and new quality productivity is macro and systematic, and the direction judgment is positive and novel. Among them, artificial intelligence has been written separately in a single sentence for the first time, as a representative of the subversive and cutting-edge new quality productivity. The overall policy attitude towards artificial intelligence has changed from observation and evaluation to major support, and the relevant favorable policies in the future may reach a new level.

Consumption and investment

Guo Lei, chief economist at GF Securities, said that in terms of policies to expand domestic demand, the meeting emphasized "consumption with potentials" and "investment with productiveness." In traditional consumption areas, the promotion of bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and electronic products, as well as the replacement of old consumer goods for new ones, was particularly mentioned. In the field of new consumption, growth points such as smart homes, entertainment and tourism, sports events, and guochao (China-chic) consumption are specially mentioned. In short, the policy focus is on durable consumer goods and new types of service consumption.

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that the meeting proposed " to stimulate consumption with potentials and expand productive investment to create a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment." Compared with the previous statement, the emphasis on the "potential", "productive" and "virtuous circle", which means that the policy will no longer "isolated" to stimulate consumption and investment, but take a long-term view. While improving the efficiency of the market economy, we will strive to achieve a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of investment and consumption, pursue the policy effect of "1+1>2", and improve the sustainability of domestic demand growth.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said, "Effective investment and income-supported consumption are effective means for expanding domestic demand." He believes that the rise in terminal consumption demand is conducive to improving investment in manufacturing, and high-quality investment will form high-quality supply, which will promote consumption, and achieve a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption.

Risks that should be prevented and defused

Luo Zhiheng believes that next year, the prevention and resolution of risks will focus on the following three aspects: First, continue to promote the prevention and resolution of local government debt risks, hardening local debt constraints, and prevent hidden debt from continuing; Second, dissolve real estate risks; Third, address the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions in time to prevent risks from spreading.

In terms of mitigating risks related to the real estate sector, Pang Ming, chief economist with global consultancy JLL China, said, the government needs to adapt to the new situation and new trend of China's urbanization pattern and major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market. The government should timely adjust and optimize real estate policies according to the specific situation of each city, make good use of the policy toolbox, accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies, and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. At the same time, maintain the stability and normalization of key financing channels such as credit, bonds and equity. In particular, the government should facilitate high-quality housing enterprises in activating assets, helping them continue their liabilities and supplementing their rights and interests to improve expectations, and drive the cash flow, investment activities, mergers and acquisitions of the real estate industry back to the normal development track.