Government moves to address slowing birth rate and aging workforce. Wang Xiaodong reports.

Editor's note: To celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, we are publishing a series of stories reflecting on changes and developments in fields such as law, education, transportation and the environment. This is the seventh, and last, in the series.

Yang Dan, the mother of a 6-year-old boy, has occasionally considered having another child, but she has never taken the idea seriously.

"It's so expensive to raise a child nowadays. The pressure of having a second child is too much for us to shoulder at the moment," she said.

The 32-year-old works at an agricultural research institute in Panjin, Liaoning province, and she and her husband, 34, spend more than a third of their combined monthly income on their son.

Having another child would mean they would either have to spend half of what remains of their salary to find a nanny, or Yang would have to quit her job and become a full-time housewife to care for the children. Neither option is affordable, she said.

"In the past, having one more child did not raise a family's expenditure too much, but things are different now because you have to provide the best things available for them," she added.

Many other young couples in China share that opinion. Despite the latest policy changes designed to encourage couples to have two children, many seem unwilling to do so, as indicated by official statistics and surveys.

In the past two years, the number of births on the Chinese mainland has fallen, despite a notable rise in 2016, the year the universal second-child policy was adopted.

Last year, the number was 15.23 million, a fall of 2 million from 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Population surveys for the first half, conducted in cities such as Chongqing, in the southwest, and Weifang, Shandong province, suggest the number is likely to fall again this year.

Moreover, many population experts have predicted declines over the next few years. They warn that a decline in the total population is an irreversible trend, despite the positive effects of the universal second-child policy. That would exacerbate problems such as the aging population and dwindling workforce.

Control

However, the rising concern in recent years about a possible population decline is in sharp contrast to the past four decades, when efforts were made to control rapid population growth.

In the 70 years since the People's Republic of China was founded, population policies have evolved to suit the country's economic and social development, with each adjustment having far-reaching effects on society.

After New China was founded in 1949, the government adopted a policy of encouraging births, resulting in a rapid population increase.

According to Zhang Yi, a population researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, authorities released a series of temporary policies at the time to encourage childbirth, including sterilization and restricting abortion.

"Encouraging childbirth met the demand of the masses, which had got over war fatigue," he said. "In general, having obtained land and stable employment, they had a strong desire for marriage and childbirth."

In addition, improvements to healthcare services and the containment of many infectious diseases that had caused many deaths before New China was founded significantly reduced the mortality rate, resulting in explosive population growth, he said.

According to the NBS, the mainland population rose from 542 million in 1949 to 672 million in 1959, a jump of nearly 24 percent.

During that decade, the birth rate was one of the highest in the country's history, with the annual rate exceeding 3.6 percent of the total population for five of the 10 years. For example, in 1954, the rate reached 3.8 percent, the bureau said.

The 1960s witnessed a second birth peak, with the annual rate remaining higher than, or close to, 3.5 percent for most of that decade. From 1962 to 1972, about 300 million people were born, and by 1971, when family planning policies were released advocating that each couple should have no more than two children, the population exceeded 852 million.

Long before 1978, when the government started advocating that couples should only have one child, continuously adjusted policies were designed to check rapid population growth and relieve the burden on resources, but they were not enforced, Zhang said.

When the Reform and Opening-up Policy was adopted in 1978, the population totaled more than 960 million, including 250 million people living in poverty. The huge population and its excessive growth placed a heavy burden on social and economic development, forcing the government to formulate and implement strict family planning policies.

In 1980, the one-child rule was implemented nationwide, restricting most urban couples to just one child. In 1982, it became a basic national policy.

Poverty relief

Official statistics show that the policy controlled excessive population growth effectively for decades, preventing more than 400 million births and playing an important role in helping hundreds of millions rise above the poverty line.

By 2012, the annual population growth rate had been reduced to less than 5 per 1,000, from nearly 26 per 1,000 in 1970, according to the National Health Commission.

In 1970, the average total fertility rate-the total number of children borne by each female during her entire lifetime-was 5.8, and more than 27 million people were born that year.

The rate fell to about 1.6 in 2012, when the number of births fell to 16 million, the NHC said.

Yuan Xin, a professor of population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, said that referring to the family planning policy as the "one-child rule" is inaccurate, as many people were allowed to have two children, even during the 1980s when the policy was most strictly enforced.

Although most urban couples could only have one child before 2000, those in rural areas could have a second if the first was a girl.

"The aim was to suit the traditions in rural areas, where males were needed for farmwork," Yuan said.

In some areas, including Qinghai province and the Ningxia Hui autonomous region, farmers or herders from ethnic groups can still have three children, or even more under certain circumstances, he added.

After stringent efforts over nearly three decades, the rapid population growth was brought under control, and by the end of the 1990s, the overall birth rate had been reduced to a low level-in 1999, it was 1.4 percent-while the rate in a few large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai was as low as in some developed countries.

Zhang, from CASS, said the country had no option but to impose a strict family planning policy to adjust to social and economic changes.

The policy resulted in smaller families, which allowed parents to devote more time to their children's education and resulted in a general improvement in the quality of the workforce. That, in turn, facilitated decades of rapid economic development, Zhang said.

Warning signals

However, since the beginning of this century, the falling birth rate has sent warning signals to many experts. They have called for the relaxation of the family planning policy to alleviate the side effects of the low birth rate, including the aging population and dwindling workforce, which could affect long-term economic development and social stability.

In 2002, the family planning policy was relaxed in some areas so couples could have a second child if both parents were an only child. By the end of 2011, the policy had been adopted nationwide.

In 2010, the National Health and Family Planning Commission-the predecessor of the National Health Commission-released a draft plan of a policy that would allow couples to have two children if either member was an only child. In 2013, it was adopted nationwide.

At the end of 2015, the central leadership announced a universal second-child policy to boost the population. The policy, which encourages all couples to have two children, became law in 2016.

The change resulted in a surge in births that year to 17.86 million, a rise of 1.3 million from 2015.

About half of the babies born in 2017 and last year were second children, the NHC said.

"In recent years, the universal second-child policy has helped ease birth fluctuations, despite a falling birth rate and the rapidly declining number of women of childbearing age," the commission said.

Despite that, some experts have warned that the policy will not be enough to reverse the trend of dwindling births and a declining population in the near future.

According to a CASS report in January, the population may peak at 1.44 billion by 2029 or even earlier, irrespective of the incentives provided by the universal second-child policy, before declining. By 2065, the population will fall below 1.2 billion, similar to the level in the 1990s, it said.

"Lasting population declines, coupled with an increasingly aging population will result in serious social and economic consequences," it added.

Zhai Zhenwu, president of the China Population Association, said a population decline would result in accelerated changes in the demographic structure, and the problem of the aging population would become prominent.

"A major cause of the decline in births is the smaller number of women of childbearing age, and changing attitudes among the younger generation, who generally prefer fewer children," he said.

"The (family planning) policy is not the major cause of the falling number of births. Even if the policy were further relaxed, many couples would still choose to have fewer children."

Births have been falling since the 1990s, meaning fewer women have been born. This means fewer women of childbearing age, now and in the future, he added.

Yuan, from Nankai University, said the overall decline in the population and its rapid aging will see the workforce-people ages 15 to 59-fall by about 200 million to around 700 million by 2050.

However, with constant improvements in education and workforce skills, the nation's economic development may not be seriously affected by the shrinking workforce, he said.

Timeline

1949-53: The government encourages couples to have more children.

1960-70: China considers introducing a family planning policy, but decides not to implement a program.

1971: The State Council, China's Cabinet, approves a report on family planning that advocates couples should have no more than two children.

1973: The government proposes a policy advocating later ages for marriage. For men, the age is 25 and older, while it is 23 and older for women. The policy also urges couples to have no more than two children.

1978: Family planning is written into the Chinese Constitution for the first time.

1980: China calls for couples to have only one child to check rapid population growth.

1982: The State Council releases a directive proposing that couples in rural areas who have a daughter can have a second baby.

1984: Restrictions are relaxed on the rural population, allowing couples to have two children under certain circumstances.

2002: Couples in which both members are the only child of their family are allowed to have a second child.

2013: Couples in which one member is an only child are allowed to have a second child.

2015: The universal second-child policy is released, allowing all couples to have two children.