This paper adopts GARCH model with GED distribution to estimate the conditional VaR in both upside and downside directions at the confidence level of 90% and 95%,and then utilizes the Granger causality in risk to uncover the extreme risk spillover effect between WTI and Daqing oil markets,the daily data of oil price in two markets ranging from May 2000 to May 2005.

This paper builds portfolio decision model under risk budgeting framework by decomposing active risk budgeting into gross budgeting and structural budgeting,and solving the model when the benchmark is efficient and non-efficient,respectively,then analyzing the property,in detail,of optimal investment decision under the two different conditions.

The results indicate that:(i) the active portfolio structured by this decision model outperforms the benchmark portfolio;(ii) it is necessary to include the accuracy of predictability of the excess return in the decision model which enhances the return-risk profile;(iii) the model works in the market with short selling with the same excess return level and more active risk.

STOCHASTIC CONVEX ORDER AND PORTFOLIO VaR;

Simulation and Extreme VaR and VaR Confidence Interval Estimation for a Class of Heavy-Tailed Risk Factors;

The result indicated that accident risk value was higher than the one acceptable .

This paper introduces the definition of the electrician safety and the risk value that can be accepted by the electricians,analyzes on the importance of increasing the safety consciousness of the electricians,and puts forward some measures for increasing the safety consciousness of the electricians.

The potential risk factors are found by the way of risk identification; the risk values of risk events are evaluated by making use of the quantitative risk assessment method;all operation risk events are arranged in order according to the risk values,and some control measures are given.