We also assume a cognitive model that cognitive bias affect risk perception while risk perception also affects opportunity identification,meanwhile,the risk perception takes as a mediating variance and profit expectation takes as a moderating variance.

On condition that the numbers of participators are uncertain,this paper,based on introducing a proportion coefficientα,constructs a decision-making model of two targets,which improves the single decision- making model based on expected profits in Friedman model and Hassman-Rivett model.

The study of this paper,based on the non-bottom bidding mechanism and aimed at the maximizing of expecting profit,has built and solved the game model.

This paper described the expecting profit searched by investor and expecting profit searched by reigning,analyzed the expecting profit distribution of the investor entered this trade after searching and the reigning,drawnthe conclusion that expecting profit of reigning is higher than the expecting profit of investor that is searching for now.

Considering the buy-back cost of the supply chain,a new composite strategy has been put forward in this paper,com- bining organically the buy-back strategy with the dead stock premium strategy,and it has been proved that the expected profit of the composite strategy system is greater of equivalent to that of the buy-back strategy or of the dead stock premium strategy.

By providing scientific and reasonable promotion strategy,this paper tries to help enterprises achieve the objective of the maximal expected profit according to different selling states.

Under the condition of the uncertain demand and cost the pricing model based on the expected profit maximization is studied.

This article uses purchasing quantity as the funetion of advertising expenses and it integrates probability distribution with advertising expenses,thus a mathematical model of purchasing quantity and advertising expenses can be set up in which the maxium expectation profit can be achieved.