The possible changes of surface air temperature and precipitation as well as uncertainties of the Global Climate Models(GCMs)-based projection under IS92a GG scenario just considering the greenhouse gases(GHGs)warming effects,IS92a GS scenario with consideration of combined GHGs effects and sulphate radiation effects and the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios in the 21st century had been analyzed.

Anomalous variations of wintertime surface air temperature (WSAT) over the Asian continent and the relationship between WSAT and Asian winter monsoon are first examined by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis.

The monthly averaged precipitation and surface air temperature produced by 5 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are compared to the observation in order to access AOGCMs abilities in simulating regional climate in East Asia.

and the winter surface temperatures in China,we find that there are significant simultaneous correlations between the Eurasian and West Pacific patterns,and the surface temperature anomalies in eastern China,and that there is a significant lag correlation between the West Pacific pattern in December and the surface temperature in eastern China in January.

Based on the observed monthly surface temperature and daily precipitation of 550 stations in China from 1961 to 2000,and the surface temperature and precipitation simulated by 13 IPCC AR4(the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change) models and their multi-model ensemble(MME) mean,the simulation abilities of the 13 models are evaluated.