The Present Conditions of Scale of National Debt in Our Country and the Research for the Trend;

Based on unit root testing,co-integration testing and Granger causality testing,a state space model is used to carry out an empirical study on the relationship between the scale of national debt and money supply in China.

This paper firstly investigates the national debt scale in our country.

In order to decide the scale of the national debt,the situation of our country should be respected firstly,the general quantitative index should be used for conference to prevent the negative effect of the oversize national debt scale on the economic development.

The paper suggested the stabilized burden rate condition to assure the reasonable growth of nation bonds scale,and established the critical growth model of national bonds scale after the debts internationalization.

This paper recommend four indexes which can judge the scale of national debt and has been testfied in the world,comparing and analying the scale of national debt in our country combininng the same index of developed country.

This paper expounds the importance of the government debt policy, and then, from the point of the government debt scale, probes to the restrictive factors which influence the government debt scale of a nation.

This article, from the establishment of proper government debt scale and through the comparison of the international debt scale indicators, has acquired the correct understanding of China s current government debt scales.