By introducing two concepts first and second believable levels is proposed a new technique of ensemble forecasting that is applicable to all level stations in the country.

Based on temperature forecast of operational middle-range model of China,operational model of German meteorological administration,operational model of Japan meteorological agency and temperature observations of China,a temperature consensus forecast system is developed through method of artificial neural network.

The outputs of four models(Euler numerical model,neural network model,dynamic statistical model,consensus forecast model) for forecasting precipitation pH from May to September 2005 are analyzed and their effectiveness is compared.

Based on the digital logic theory,it is tried to do forecast ensemble for the multimethods of the 2 group(0,1)meteorological elements by means of designing electric circuit.